The May auction season has come to a close, offering the kind of data-driven clarity that only the auctions can provide in an otherwise opaque art market. While auctions remain inherently unpredictable – no matter how much pre-sale momentum a lot might carry –they continue to serve as the art world’s only real-time measure of value. At Art Market Liaison, we don’t just watch the auctions – we actively participate in them. With deep-rooted experience from years spent working within the auction industry, our team regularly advises clients on both the buying and selling sides. This direct engagement gives us a unique perspective: we’re not just analyzing trends, we’re helping shape them. In reviewing the May results, particularly in the price bands where we’re most active, we’ve seen many of our recent market forecasts play out in real time.
Across the major houses, evening sales underperformed expectations, with The Art Newspaper reporting “few fireworks.” Several trophy lots that had been heavily touted – including works by René Magritte and Alberto Giacometti – failed to find energy in pretty sleepy rooms. These works, which occupied the upper echelon of the market, were weighed down by overly ambitious estimates and a collector base that is increasingly sensitive to inflated pricing. In line with our recent insights on tariffs and shifting collector behavior, buyers at the ultra top end appear hesitant to spend unless pricing feels realistic and emotionally or historically compelling.
But while the high end stagnated, the day sales told a different story.
This is where Art Market Liaison was most active, and where the market showed real resilience. Works priced between $10k and $2 million performed well, particularly when guided by sensible, well-researched estimates. Even artists who struggled in the evening sales – Magritte and Giacometti among them – found stronger traction at these mid-range price points, where collector expectations were better aligned with market realities. The message is clear: When pricing reflects true market appetite, sales happen.
What else did we learn? In the face of auction unpredictability, sellers with attractive material continue to lean into financial guarantees as a way to mitigate risk. Though this strategy may cap the upside—since guarantors share in the final result—it provides a level of stability that sellers value in today’s market. For high-value consignments, this is often the difference between a withdrawn lot and a closed deal. Guarantees won’t rescue an overestimated work, but they can help push a fairly priced one across the finish line.
Another positive development? Among the most encouraging sales this auction season was the continued – and overdue – recognition of women artists. Each auction house achieved new records for leading artists, including Grace Hartigan and Olga de Amaral at Phillips, and Marlene Dumas and Dorothea Tanning at Christie’s – to name a few – a sign that market appetite is finally catching up to critical consensus. Their success underscores a growing trend: collectors are more open than ever to investing in historically under-recognized voices, especially when the quality is paired with scarcity and strong institutional backing. Our advice here is always to build a collection based on passion, ideally with a clear point of view and purpose.
Our final thoughts? The May auctions reminded us of both the volatility and the opportunity in the market today. At the top end, the appetite is selective, with collectors demanding more than just a name – they want quality, context, and fair pricing. Meanwhile, the mid-market continues to be the heartbeat of the industry, supported by a broad base of collectors who are both educated and engaged.
At AML, we continue to advocate for thoughtful pricing, strategic placement, and clear-eyed analysis. As this season shows, the right work at the right price still sells – and with the right advisory, collectors can navigate even the most unpredictable waters with confidence. Reach out to our team now to learn more.
